If you've been following the hype leading up to the main-event of UFC 111, which pits lofty welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre versus the brash and fiery slugger Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy, you have probably heard that Hardy's chances are somewhere close to slim, none, or the accursed "puncher's chance".

Here is something to consider:  GSP has never faced a striker with Hardy's particular bundle of striking attributes.

If you have any faith in the adage "styles make fights", then please join me in placing St. Pierre's past opponents under a microscope to extract what unfamiliar challenges Hardy may provide.  Before I discuss a few areas where Hardy will present a certain threat that the champion either hasn't seen or doesn't see often, let's take a look at the commendable strikers GSP has faced throughout his career, and what pros and cons were at play.

Of course, Thiago Alves is the first that springs to mind, who is clearly the most proven of the bunch. Alves has won an impressive 10 of his 16 fights by TKO, which are numbers that demonstrate his capabilities in the stand-up category. When analyzing the method in which Alves has consistently implemented his prowess throughout his career, most of the stoppages have come by way of either knees (many of the flying variety) or a broad accumulation of strikes. Alves definitely has power in his hands, but not necessarily of the single-shot "lights out" magnitude.

One of the key accessories that complements St. Pierre's adroit kickboxing is the extensive breadth of his almost telescopic limbs. Although (as you can see from the interesting documentation here) defining GSP's actual reach-length has been clouded with uncertainty, the champ has always enjoyed the luxury of having a few, if not several degrees of superior height and reach. The complexities caused by this were readily apparent when Alves continually found himself swarmed with leather and low-kicks on the boundaries of St. Pierre's range anytime he attempted to close distance and mount offense.

The other critical aspect that prevented Alves and GSP's other victims from finding their groove on the feet is the champ's unreal wrestling voracity, which exemplifes just how deadly a fighter who excels in both striking and wrestling can be. When a fighter that wields these two weapons bursts into motion and engages from any kind of distance, their opponents must anticipate a much broader spectrum of maneuvers, and the mechanics of thwarting a takedown don't always coalesce with those required to defend strikes. This only opens more doors for St. Pierre on the feet, where we've seen him thrive with an extensive array of well-assembled combinations, or especially with the Superman punch, because his opponents have a tendency to drop their hands in fear of the imminent takedown.

B.J. Penn has also made significant strides with his striking game, and deserves mention. Penn is important in this comparison because GSP's usual reach advantage was minimized the most, and "The Prodigy" has good footwork, decent head movement, and solid boxing--which makes him the closest in style to Hardy of all the highly-adept strikers on GSP's resume'.

Their first encounter, which mostly unfolded on the feet, is more material to support how St. Pierre's striking is somewhat de-glamorized when devoid of the gargantuan reach bonus he usually holds, and how a fearless and aggressive strategy can bear fruit. It's also worth noting that Penn broke GSP's nose in the opening frame with the same left-hook in the pocket that has become Dan Hardy's signature technique.

Josh Koscheck can indeed hurl a jet streaming haymaker, and he's the only opponent on GSP's track record with equal reach--but Hardy's arsenal is much more refined, especially in the department of footwork, head-movement, balance, defense, and clean combinations.  Kos has drastically improved his striking in the few short years since The Ultimate Fighter, but the AKA product still exhibits some issues with his stance, keeping his hands up, and with his balance when he plants and over-commits to throw his simplified power shots; and the latter is exactly how and why GSP took him down.  "The Outlaw" will present an entirely different dynamic, replete with more precise counter-punching, active and balanced upper-body/head movement and defense, and the use of calculated angles with more nimble footwork.

Pete Spratt is another forceful and technically sound striker that GSP has defeated, but their match took place years ago and hit the canvas immediately.  Jay Hieron is another welterweight with good pugilistic qualities, but was a green fighter at the time with only four professional contests under his belt.

Matt Serra has yet to receive some respect here, but I think the conclusions we can draw from his shellacking of St. Pierre are rather obvious.  Hardy has this same type of sleep-inducing power at the tip of his punches, and again, in an extensively longer, taller, and more technically-adept container.

Moving past the fragments of GSP's past successes and stumbles, the point is that GSP has yet to face a highly-proficient and powerful striker when stripped of his usual height/reach advantage.  Now, factor in that Hardy will actually have a few inches of height on St. Pierre, with at least equal reach, and also that his hefty punches will be delivered like a whirlwind from a poised and well-oiled boxing machine, and we have a different breed of animal standing across the cage from MMA's most dominant welterweight.

Another minor variable that could factor into the equation is the champ adding an alleged 8 pounds of lean muscle mass to his frame, a tactic that often goes hand-in-hand with reduced cardiovascular endurance.  GSP has also voiced his consideration to enter the Olympics to wrestle, which is merely another miniscule footnote that may pertain to focus and motivation when searching for potential chinks in his armor.

On top of all of this, Dan Hardy is pissed off that he's being so severly under-rated, he'll aggressively engage the champ with cannons blazing, and he'll fight like he has nothing to lose; a concoction that's proven to be shockingly volatile and the witch's brew for an upset in certain instances.

To summarize, I concede the possibility of GSP exerting his all-encompassing wrestling repertoire and capitalizing on his greatest advantage, as I would against any conceivable mammal that could be stuffed into some shorts and tip the scales at less than 171 pounds; but perhaps I lend more credence to the scenario of Hardy stunning St. Pierre with a steel-filled strike, or anticipating the deviously disguised takedown that everyone knows is coming with a well-placed uppercut or knee, and subsequently capitalizing.

Regardless, Dan Hardy has a chance to win this fight. Ambivalence prohibits the inclusion of a quantifying adjective to predict how good his chances are, but I'm confident that they're better than most are giving him.