UFC 1, Art Jimmerson, and the Aegis of Convenience to Doubt James Toney

Hardcore fans will be the first to tell you that "MMA Math doesn't work" and "anything can happen".  Unfortunately, many go on to cite Royce Gracie's victory a mere seventeen years ago over uni-gloved icon Art Jimmerson in UFC 1 as to why James Toney has "no chance" against Randy Couture.  How many times have you read "go watch UFC 1" in the past few weeks as a justification of veritable insanity for anyone giving James Toney a shot against Couture?

The early UFC's were nothing more than an experimental petri dish for real hand-to-hand combat where "defending a triangle" might result in protractors being drawn from Trapper Keepers, being "well rounded" only applied to the shape of "Sumu" fighter Manny Yarbrough, and Scott Morris was more likely to disappear victoriously in a smoke bomb than painfully shatter our comforting childhood fascination with the mysteriously invincible aura of ninjas.

Wielding conveniently created maxims seems to be a common occurrence in MMA sewing circles; not unlike the way Werdum wasn't given a prayer to beat Fedor on account of the way "The Last Emperor" soundly defeated renowned submissionist "Minotauro" Nogueira, or Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante was a futile prediction over King Mo because he had recently fell to an irrelevant Mike Kyle.  Life would be so much easier if we could stuff everything into a labeled box and expect the same outcome to repeat infinitely.

The Bloody Elbow crew has already put in the time and effort to elicit some examples where boxing was plenty successful against hybrid fighters in the past, the best offerings being James Warring earning a win over talented Shooto prodigy Erik Paulson, and almost all of Laverne Clark's initial forays.  To close the door on the Gracie vs. Jimmerson comparison, Royce was probably just as one-dimensional as the present day Toney, and I think Lyoto Machida and Katsunori Kikuno might have something to say about the once-prominent conclusion that "Karate is worthless in real fighting" after Fred Ettish was TKO'd by Johnny Rhodes.

So let's spread our now-morally angelic wings and look at the match-up for what it is:  a striker of the highest level facing the obvious disadvantage of a more diverse and experienced tactician who intends to exploit his opponent’s weakness.

Given Couture's inability to compete with Toney's extraordinary boxing skills, the argument can be made that Randy is bringing just as much of a transparent and predictable game-plan.  We could also examine the way Chuck Liddell used precise footwork and head-splitting punches to temporarily retire Couture; which would not be unfathomable for Toney to replicate.  Because of the significant emphasis on the critical fundamentals of footwork in the realm of boxing, I think we can expect Toney to display an elite level of movement compared to the norm.  Toney’s physique has definitely seen better days, and he’s far from a nimble ballerina, but Couture's no spring chicken either, and a virtual anomaly in the sport because of his age.

We've traditionally seen Couture use two strategies effectively throughout his career of dismantling strikers:  the bread and butter technique of throwing a vicious overhand right and following immediately behind it to close the distance and pounce on his stationary adversary, and locking them up in a hostile tangle of dirty boxing to wait patiently for the Greco Roman ingredients of underhooks, snaring a leg, or dragging them south of heaven with his vice-like body-lock.

The former will always have its worth, but tying the pugilist up in the clinch only puts him in dangerous proximity to the dynamite of Toney’s punches.  A shot for a single or double from outside is a common course of action, but one Couture has not exercised often for a wrestler.  A big reason “Captain America” is lauded for his cerebral qualities can be attributed to the way he rarely leaves himself exposed the way a shot from a distance can when it fails.

I’ll pull the plug at this point so I don’t unload my gun entirely, as I need to save a few bullets for more incessant rambling in the upcoming “Dissection by Dallas” segment on this match-up.  You can rest assured that I won’t be discarding the legitimate potential James Toney has to win this match and shock the world.

If Toney does work a miracle—though I cringe at the thought of the incoherent string of lavish trash talk that will surely accompany it—I’ll be forced to agree with James when he mumbles an unintelligible “told you so” to the people who are ignoring the devastating power of the sweet science when it’s put to work with the right set of hands.