Tyson Griffin x Hermes Franca- Hermes Franca is the people's champion and a consistent crowd favorite.  He once hammerfisted Manny Reyes Jr. into oblivion for running his mouth on The Underground Forum for the price of exactly one dollar.  He wears his heart on his sleeve, he fights like there's no tomorrow, and he's not afraid to take chances by slinging a slightly sloppy but wallop-packing overhand right or to fling on a risky submission when the opportunity presents itself. Hermes has twice tasted the bitter defeat of back-to-back losses in the UFC.  Josh Thomson and Yves Edwards eked out close decision wins over him back in 2004 when the three were vying for the lightweight title, but the UFC decided to get out of the lightweight business and closed up the 155 shop.  Franca reappeared in '06 and rattled off three straight wins, the biggest being a bashing of technical striker Spencer Fisher with a meathook right hand.  Two losses in a row were handed to Franca by Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar, both of whom are energetic wrestlers who rode top control to the decision.  It's worth noting that Jamie Varneralso out-wrestled Franca for the bulk of the fight before Hermes executed perfect timing with a brutal knee to the face of the shooting Varner. Therein lies the kryptonite to Franca's superpowers.  Despite carrying a blackbelt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and winning more than half of his fights by submission, he's struggled against the powerful wrestlers at the top of the food chain.  Tyson Griffin is a bad match-up for him.  He was a standout wrestler in high school and college, but he's also honed his stand-up and BJJ game nicely, offering a multi-dimensional threat.  He's a squatty, aggressive little bulldog who will attach himself and gnaw furiously, and although he maintains a vigorous assault and a vivacious pace, all but one of his eight UFC fights have gone to a decision.  Interestingly enough, his two losses are to Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar, the two fighters that also foiled Franca. Despite his lacking ability to finish at the top level, he's a consistent "Fight of the Night" winner.  His striking game has come together very fluently and with a lot of snap, and he's been utilizing nice angles  to bombard opponents with an accumulation of varied blows, also throwing in rather precise leg kicks from just outside of the pocket to keep his opponents on the defensive. Usually, the fighter who is "pretty damn good" at most things- but not an expert in any one- will experience difficulty against someone who excels in one or more areas.  Franca is a BJJ-specialist with unorthodox but heavy hands, and although Tyson may risk getting caught on feet if he's as willing to stand and trade as he has been in past performances, I see him representing a horrible match-up for Hermes.  Griffin will keep ultra-busy on the feet and use good head movement, defense, and footwork to pick Franca apart and keep the judges smiling, and he's wise enough to avoid any dangerzones in Franca's guard.  Hermes' best chance is to throw strikes with reckless abandon and hunt aggressively for subs and sweeps from the bottom, but I believe Griffin will take the exciting but dependable decision-route to victory.  My guess:  Griffin by decision

Frank Trigg x Josh Koscheck- Both men have a highly credentialed wrestling foundation, but have evolved into complete fighters.  Trigg wrestled at the University of Oklahoma and qualified for the Olympic trials, and Koscheck attended Edinboro University in Pennsylvania and was a four-time NCAA Division 1 All American.  Koscheck hasn't seen action since his flash knockdown from Paulo Thiago, where he was comfortably clobbering the Brazilian before getting sloppy.  Trigg is back into the UFC with a full head of steam after suffering a string of submission losses to the creme de la creme of UFC welterweights back in 2005. Each have drastically improved their stand-up striking game, becoming decent boxers, although in different ways; Trigg fires straight punches from a tight southpaw stance, while Koscheck has adopted a wider and looser style that lends itself more towards hooks and overhands.  Koscheck has more power, but his lack of balance, poise, and tendency to drop his hands during exchanges will leave more openings for the quicker and more accurate Trigg, who also employs better shelling and defense on the feet. We often find that grappling ensues when two strikers meet, and vice-versa.  Barring Koscheck landing a looping right hand, look for Trigg to frustrate Koscheck in the stand-up and then refuse to acquiesce when Kos resorts to the takedown.  Trigg will invoke an effective sprawl and keep a low center of gravity in the clinch, and is fairly effective with short knees and dirty boxing.  That's not to say that Kos will be unable to succeed in any takedown attempts.  With established wrestlers of this caliber, it's rather arduous to predict who will outperform the other in their chosen craft.  Koscheck has youth, height, and perhaps active mobility on his side, but will forfeit a boatload of experience to the wily veteran, who doesn't seem to have lost much of the spring in his step.  Trigg has shown an affinity for finding himself caught in submissions, particularly the rear-naked choke, but Koscheck doesn't necessarily subscribe to the Jiu Jitsu philosophy of intending to pass guard and advance position at every opportunity.  He seems more content to posture up and bomb away when controlling top position, although he does pounce and punish during grappling scrambles. I find myself astonished at the odds slanted so heavily towards Koscheck, with Trigg as high as +350.  This is arguably the most pivotal fight in the career of either fighter, so both will be hungry and will fight like they have something to lose.  It may be dangerous, but I'm going to take a chance and pick another drastic underdog.  My guess:  Trigg by decision

Martin Kampmann x Paul Daley- This match-up marks two newer faces at WW, and the 3rd fight on the card that hallmarks two combatants who traditionally prefer to remain standing throughout the fight as both fighters have earned Muay Thai titles.  Kampmann is a Danish shootfighter with a plenary amassment of broad skills:  he's a two-time Thai boxing champ, winner of a few submission wrestling tournaments, was originally considered to be mostly a kickboxer coming into the UFC with 6 of his 10 wins coming by KO/TKO, and his first high profile win was a systematic sprawl and brawl performance over submission whiz Thales Leites- but half of Kampann's overall UFC wins are by submission.  Kampmann was a rising contender at 185 pounds until encountering a vicious shower of strikes from Nate Marquardt, who handed him his first UFC and second career loss, and "The Hitman" now has his sights set on welterweight with a recent win over WEC champ Carlos Condit under his belt. Paul "Semtex" Daley is a calamitous striker out of the UK who is filling in for the injured Mike Swick in his UFC debut.  The general consensus on Semtex is that he murders people on the feet (he's dropped 16 of his 21 victims via TKO), but his ground skills aren't up to par with his stand-up.  He still presents quite a feisty challenge as his natural athleticism makes him difficult to take down and even more difficult to keep there, and he's continually establishing a perilous perimeter by hurling a series of Thai-flavored strikes to greet anything in range with the daunting threat of true knockout power.  Fans cite Daley's loss to Shields as the strategy to dismantle him, but Jake has some of the better wrestling, submissions, and control at 170-185 pounds, and I believe his desperate shot attempts, struggles to confine Daley, and total avoidance of trading blows is a testament to what a tiresome venture this tactic will present.  Daley is deceivingly strong and squirmy when avoiding containment. Kampmann is absurdly favored on the betting circuit, with Daley being anywhere from +250 to +350.  Kampmann stands slightly taller and uses his reach well, and both are polished and technical standing, but Kampmann lacks power in both his punches and his wrestling/takedowns.  He holds the clear submission edge, but I don't think he can create the scenario to implement it.  Daley explodes onto the UFC's radar screen with a dramatic upset.  My guess:  Daley by TKO  

As with the main event, thoughts wander to which version of a formerly dominant fighter will materialize in the cage.  Mirko CroCop jumped the K-1 fence to graze on the greener pastures of MMA and experienced instantaneous recognition by establishing his pulverizing straight left hand and the infamous "cemetery kick" as weapons of mass destruction.

Brazilian hero Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira made another miracle in the form of an armbar after taking a severe beating throughout their war in Pride to hand CroCop his first loss in 9 fights, and Kevin Randleman landed a hail mary left hook after beautifully faking a shot to tarnish the Croatian kickboxer's seemingly invincible striking aura.

Mirko would eventually face defeat at the hands of Fedor Emelianenko and Mark Hunt, the latter being a spirited strike-fest where Hunt's concrete head and unrelenting boxing onslaught earned him a close decision.  CroCop finished his Pride career with a respectable 20-4 record, trouncing a plethora of established names in the process, such as Kazushi Sakuraba, Wanderlei Silva, Mark Coleman, Aleksander Emelianenko, Heath Herring, Josh Barnett, and Randleman in a rematch.

Mirko CroCop's career deflated when he jumped from the sinking Pride ship and signed with the UFC.  He devoured Eddie Sanchez in his first spotlight fight, and then was forced to choke down his own medicine with a monstrous head kick KO delivered by Gabriel Gonzaga, which to this day is still Gonzaga's only significant win amongst the elite HW echelon.  Check Kongo revealed his hatred for Croatian genitalia by repeatedly wracking CroCop with illegal knees downstairs, and this in conjunction with his height, reach, and top notch kickboxing repertoire proved to be a rough night for Mirko.  Alistair Overeem drew up the same blueprint by targeting the cup area with knees from the clinch, rendering a No Contest ruling in a fight many assume CroCop "would've lost anyway".

As with Belfort, I don’t find CroCop’s losses to be outrageous, but realistic.  Can rising star Junior dos Santos tackle the same task?  He certainly has the tools to, as he divulged in violent fashion against Fabricio Werdum by knocking him out of consciousness and off the UFC's roster.  This was the first real test for Junior “Cigano” dos Santos, and his successful step-up in competition lurched him up the ladder to the top rungs of the division.  The man is a killing machine.  He wades forward amidst swirls of ill-intended hooks, forcing his adversary to either engage in the frenzy or retreat to less hostile territory.  His clinch game is strong and rife with sharp knees and quick but hefty dirty boxing; which might be an area dos Santos will exploit considering CroCop's recent struggles there, and all the while he will test the Croatian's chin and mettle by drumming uppercuts and short hooks through his defense. CroCop is shorter and smaller in stature, so he will have to abandon his transparent and one-dimensional strategy of throwing one or two strikes while backpedaling away.  Although he needs to steer clear of being backed against the cage and mangled in the clinch or exchanging toe-to-toe, he will have to string together more creative combinations to set up his bread and butter left straight and left high kick, instead of relying on them solely and in singular fashion.  Its going to be difficult for CroCop to be effective in close range due to the abundant and fight-ending capability of dos Santos' punches, but he sure as hell isn't going to take him down and submit him, so with calculated footwork he must threaten either with either a higher volume of strikes or engage more frequently than he's done recently, and keep dos Santos at bay with quick leg kicks and well-timed counterstriking. Mirko's strategy in Pride where he could calmly walk down his opponents and turn the lights off with one punch or kick is in need of immediate revision; in fact, it is dos Santos who will stalk and remain poised to teleport two inches from Mirko's face while hurling haymakers at the drop of a hat.  Avoiding a brawl and assuming the role of the highly decorated kickboxer will be the key for CroCop.  If he can draw upon his experience, superior head movement, technical footwork, and in concert attack with combinations from his high-polished collection of fluent strikes, he has a great chance of frustrating the headhunting Brazilian and tiring him in the later rounds that will be foreign to him, as dos Santos has only been past the first round once in his nine fights.  My head says that dos Santos is another horrible match-up for CroCop, but "Cigano" is still a bit unproven, and I'm going to stay loyal and stick with a favorite in the hopes that the old guard are not entirely extinct in MMA.  My guess:  CroCop by TKO

You may have heard the the question "Which Vitor will show up?" in relation to a Vitor Belfort fight.  I believe that this is a bit of a misnomer created by fans who are disappointed if Vitor doesn't unleash the world-renowned "flurry" within the opening moments of the fight to cripple his opponent to the canvas in story book fashion.  Vitor's losses make sense, and I don't think they can be so easily attributed to Vitor's state of mind, but rather to the overly cliche' phrase "styles make fights".

Fans who have been following the fight game from the beginning have seen the rise and fall of Vitor Belfort, and I think he's been somewhat unfairly labeled a wildly unpredictable fighter.  He was but a vulnerable 20 years old and sitting atop the MMA world after lighting the scene on fire with his unparalleled debut when he faced an unknown Randy Couture, who handed the Brazilian fighter his first devastating loss.  The hype train of the "Phenom" lost serious momentum yet again when Belfort met legend Kazushi Sakuraba in Pride and lost a lackluster decision, breaking his hand early and forced to fight with hesitation for the remainder of the contest back in 1999.  Couture topped him once again in the UFC, followed shortly after by Tito Ortiz in a razor-thin split decision loss where Belfort's striking prowess was indeed on display, but most swept Vitor under the rug after his subsequent losses to Alistair Overeem in Pride and Strikeforce- and being pinned to the canvas by wrestling virtuoso Dan Henderson in Pride didn't renew his reputation.

I see no shame in any of those shortcomings, which amount to an overall 18-8 record against some of the better competition MMA can offer.  Historical notations aside, we arrive at the present, where Vitor will meet 25-4 Rich Franklin in what should prove to be an appetizing exchange of pinpoint striking.  3 of Franklin's 4 losses come by way of Lyoto Machida and Anderson Silva, two men that Vitor has spent significant time training with.  Although Vitor doesn't embody the same style of fighting as either, as no one on earth does, he does share the same proficiency to use clever angles and footwork to attain an advantageous position and stream rockets from his fists into the momentarily vulnerable opponent.  This also requires patience and maturity, both of which I believe Vitor Belfort has made great strides in acquiring.

Rich Franklin has also shown the gritty perseverance and hard-nosed performances that a fighter needs in order to bounce back from heartbreaking losses.  Franklin was soundly dismantled by Anderson Silva twice, and these were the type of one-sided beatings that can change a fighter's career forever- but the unassuming former school teacher hopped back on the horse and proved he is still a formidable opponent for anyone surfing the 185 to 205 lb. waves.  Franklin is easily one of the more poised and intelligent fighters in the business, also touting technical footwork and great hands, but adding a consistent implementation of varied kicks to his polished striking arsenal that have changed the course of fights, and in some cases ended them.  Franklin will also enjoy a slight height and reach advantage that can only assist in transactions on the feet and in the clinch.

Although most are hoping to see fireworks on the feet, the ground game is interesting to analyze.  Although Belfort is a Carlson Gracie blackbelt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, he does not represent much of an offensive submission threat; his only two wins in that fashion came from less than impressive competition, while Franklin has snared a third of his wins by submission.  If Franklin does not fare well on the feet, I don't think a takedown attempt punctuated by top control punishment would be out of the question as a trial tactic.

Vitor's crisp and explosive boxing awards him the solid speed and power advantage, and his chin strength is very underrated as Randy Couture is the only fighter to pin him and pound away for the referee stoppage.  Franklin has shown slight vincibility there, but only to the two best strikers currently competing.  Mentally, Franklin has the edge, and I think his intelligence will also pay dividends by initiating judge-pleasing surges to close rounds on the favorable side of the score cards.

For "The Phenom" to win this fight, he must push the pace and fight aggressively, looking to damage Franklin as opposed to outpointing him.  Rich is a cunning competitor who will remain in the fight until you take him out of it, and that's exactly what Belfort must do to secure the win: position himself to pounce, and then pound away with the intent to finish.  The slightest sign of laid-back behavior from Belfort spells doom for his hopes, as Franklin will stay busy enough to steal the decision.  My choices are Franklin by decision, or to go with what I would prefer to see unfold:  My guess:  Belfort by TKO.

One of two Strikeforce titles that has been floating in limbo will be awarded to a fresh new fighter.  Strikeforce CEO Scott Coker has confirmed to MMAWeekly that Cung Le will officially release his grasp on the Middleweight belt due to further commitments in the film industry.

All the big talk between former Bully Beatdown buddies Jake Shields and Jason "Mayhem" Miller will be settled "mano a mano" as they will participate in the first official match-up to compliment the headlining brawl between Fedor Emelianenko and Brett Rogers on the November 7th Strikeforce show on CBS.  Coker also mentioned to expect newly crowned LHW champion Gegard Mousasi on the card along with Cris Cyborg, according to BloodyElbow.

That leaves Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza out of immediate title range, as he was originally scheduled to face Mayhem for the DREAM MW title before signing with Strikeforce, and he's been very vocal about being more than ready to face either Shields or Mayhem for the belt.  I would love to see Jacare take on Strikeforce's newest 185 lb. acquisition on the same card, Matt Lindland, to produce the next #1 contender and provide continuity for the MW title race.

 

"Mark it, dude." November 7th is the day; Saturday, on CBS, the sport's best fighter tangles with hefty striker Brett Rogers in his Strikeforce debut.  Take up your Sharpie and mark a big "X" on the calendar, let the wife know that evening is out for spending quality time or spooning, set your DVR's and Tivo's, and threaten any potential saboteurs with violence.  The Last Emperor is coming. The rest of the card has not yet been announced, but... who cares.  You're watching it.  Find out what the fanboy hype is all about when the mild-mannered Russian destroyer named Fedor Emelianenko calmly and casually strolls into a cage for the first time in his career to face a large black man who knocks people out when he punches them and has a scary mohawk. Whether you're watching MMA for the first time, or watching Fedor for the first time, or watching to see Fedor continue to make history by carrying on his prestigious legacy of being the most dominant and awe-inspiring fighter in MMA, or tuning in to see Fedor get crushed and suffer his first legitimate loss... you're watching. Strikeforce presents "Fedor Vs. Rogers" on CBS.  Saturday, November 7th.

Photo by Esther Lin/STRIKEFORCE