Oracle Orcus: UFC on Versus: Jones vs. Matyushenko

It is with some trepidation that I post my first article for TheGarv.com, a predictions write-up for Sunday night's UFC on Versus: Jones vs Matyushenko. Why? Because I have little trouble imagining either fighter getting the win in all of these maincard matchups, and not just in the usual "anything can happen in MMA" way. And the Garv's suggested appellation of "oracle" invites ridicule should I be wrong. In the end, though, an analysis article without taking a stand and stating a prediction is, frankly, weak. So, here goes:

Jones vs Matyushenko:

It doesn't take a genius to realize that this match was put together with the expectation that Jon "Bones" Jones (10-1) will defeat Vladimir Matyushenko (24-4). Jones is a rising star with a style tailor-made to attract fans, having displayed a huge variety of action movie-esque strikes and takedowns, and, in his last two outings, some of the most vicious ground and pound elbows we've seen inside the cage. His opponent, "The Janitor", is an aging veteran whose most recent split decision win, in an unaired preliminary match against TUF contestant Eliot Marshall, met with audible crowd discontent throughout.

Will Matyushenko play the spoiler and bring the rising star back to earth? The Janitor is both experienced and tough; in the last decade, his only losses are to prime Tito Ortiz, the much larger Andrei Arlovski, and the highly regarded Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (whom Vladimir also holds a win over). He has very serviceable standup, decent power, an excellent chin, and the oft-cited "superior wrestling credentials."

For his part, Jon Jones has a massive height and reach advantage, and an only slightly less dramatic edge in the speed department. While his wrestling history on paper might not be as impressive as Matyushenko's, neither was junior college wrestler Tito Ortiz's, and that did not stop Tito from handily outwrestling Vladimir from bell to bell. And it certainly cannot be overlooked that Jones absolutely manhandled Matt Hamill and Brandon Vera, with the former having never previously been taken down in the UFC, and the latter stonewalling Randy Couture's takedowns.

The oracle says: Matyushenko's toughness and experience may keep him in there long enough for Jones to gas as he did in the Bonnar fight, but my prediction is still that Jones lives up to the hype. At some point he will score a dramatic takedown and put the Janitor on his back, elbows will be dropped, and the fight will be stopped.


Munoz vs Okami:

It's often said that when two strong wrestlers face off in the cage, we get a striking match. There are as many examples contradicting this chestnut as there are supporting it, but in any case, I believe a striking match is what we'll get in the early going from Mark Munoz (8-1) and Yushin Okami (25-5). Munoz, having been brutally KO'd by Matt Hamill standing and badly hurt by Kendall Grove on the feet, will work hard for the takedown, but Okami is no slouch in the wrestling (or strength) department and will keep it standing or work his way back to his feet quickly if he is put on his back.

On the feet, Okami has the edge; with his significant reach advantage and the dramatically improved boxing he showed in his last fight, he should be able to pick Munoz apart as long as he avoids Mark's big power. On the ground, Okami is far more experienced with submissions, but Munoz has brutally heavy punches from the top position -- in fact, he is in the rather elite group of ground and pounders who have actually knocked out their opponents on the ground. If Okami falls back on the slow-starting ways he has been known for, he may find himself on his back eating a barrage of sledgehammers before he can establish his rhythm.

Still, the oracle says: Okami. Too much experience, too skilled standing and on the ground; and if Kendall Grove can keep Munoz from scoring a takedown until the second round, Yushin should be even better able to nullify Mark's wrestling. Okami will hurt Munoz standing and finish with a submission.


Howard vs Ellenberger:

"Explosive" vs "explosive". Two hungry, aggressive welterweights with strong takedowns and very heavy hands promise a high-paced fight unlikely to go to the judges. Jake Ellenberger (22-5) overwhelmed veteran Mike Pyle in his last UFC appearance, after losing a close split decision in his UFC debut against Carlos Condit a few months earlier -- but it must be noted that Jake had Condit dangerously close to being stopped on more than one occasion. For his part, John Howard (14-4) comes into this match riding back-to-back knockout wins, over Dennis Hallman and Daniel Roberts.

The oracle says: Ellenberger. As the bigger fighter, I think he will also prove to be the stronger one, and will simply be too much physically for "Doomsday". Jake by TKO.


Griffin vs Gomi:

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Not long ago, Takanori Gomi (31-6) was the very best lightweight in the world; now, I would hesitate to pick him to win over almost any other high level fighter in his division. And that certainly includes the always game Tyson Griffin (14-3), looking to rebound from his loss to the undefeated Evan Dunham.

One might think Griffin is the ideal opponent for Gomi: A short wrestler, the living embodiment of the word "stocky", who has shown almost no interest in actually wrestling in his fights -- preferring to stand and box. One might think a wrestler of Gomi's ability, with long arms and lightning fast, crushing punch combinations, would make short work of such a fighter. And, once upon a time, Gomi might have.

But now, whether you attribute it to age, disinterest, inadequate training, or a difference in level of competition, Gomi simply has not looked like the Fireball Kid of Pride. His punches have gone from among the fastest to downright slow, and seem to lack the power they once had; he fights with no apparent plan; and his cardio has looked suspect in all of his recent fights that lasted long enough to test it.

The oracle says: Griffin by decision. He has the speed that once was Gomi's, endless cardio, and the drive and dedication in and out of the ring to outwork the Pride legend.