Oracle Orcus : UFC 118 Breakdown

UFC 118 brings us a tasty mélange of fights with something for everyone: A title rematch between arguably the two best fighters in the most stacked division in the sport; a throwback style-vs-style matchup of former greats in their respective sports; a number one contender fight between an undefeated prospect and an ever-improving standout; another top contender looking to get back on track; and, ever the cherry on top, a Diaz. The entertainment potential is high, but how do the fights actually break down? Put on your reading glasses: This is going to be a long one.

Frank Edgar vs B.J. Penn

Whomever one feels deserved the decision in the first bout between these two lightweights, Penn and Edgar were nothing if not evenly matched. The strikes landed by each fighter varied only by single digits (in whose favor is dependent on which statistics source you consult); each guy was lumped up by the end, but never visibly hurt or in danger; there were only one or two successful takedowns, depending on your criteria, and no ground work at all in the fight.

I expect the rematch will present us with a much more definitive answer as to who is the real champion at 155. On one hand, B.J. will surely be highly motivated: This is a man whom immediately before the fight was universally said to be head and shoulders above every other lightweight in the sport, and he was at best dead even with, and at worst (and officially) inferior to a fighter most think would be better suited to the 145lb division. Penn inarguably has something to prove here, and knows now that Edgar is talented enough to push him to the limit. He will be entering the cage motivated, well-trained, and looking for the kill. Perhaps more importantly, he knows that Edgar can match him blow for blow on the feet, where B.J. has usually enjoyed a rather large advantage over most of his opponents. This might cause Penn to change his strategy; to work harder to get the fight to the ground, where presumably Edgar is much weaker than the BJJ “Prodigy”.

On the other hand, Edgar now knows that Penn is not the boogeyman; that he can comfortably trade hands with B.J. for 25 minutes and suffer little more than a black eye. He knows he can take B.J. down, and he knows he can shrug off B.J.’s own takedown attempts. He knows he can keep up a high output for all five rounds, and Penn cannot. In other words, he will have even greater confidence than he did in the first fight, and be more relaxed and effective as a result. It is worth mentioning that recent reports have said Frank was suffering from a staph infection during the first fight; if true, a healthy Edgar should be even faster.

This being an immediate rematch, nothing has changed in terms of how the two fighters matchup. Standing skill appears to be even. Edgar has the wrestling advantage on paper, and managed to both take down Penn and stuff B.J.’s own takedown attempts, so he gets the nod in that category. Grappling inarguably goes to B.J. Physically, Frank possibly has a slight edge in speed, but that is countered by B.J.’s exceptional timing and reflexes. Penn has the heavier hands, having dropped most of his lightweight opponents -- even those known for their iron chins. Penn also likely has the better chin, having gone toe to toe with heavier fighters from GSP to Lyoto Machida; however, it must be noted that Edgar has never been stopped, and never appeared hurt in the first fight with B.J. Cardio certainly goes to Frank, who appeared as fresh in the fifth round as in the first, while B.J. was fading very noticeably by that point.

My pick: Edgar. Some argue that B.J. will “just” take Frank down and submit him or pound him out rather than sticking with a boxing gameplan this time out, but I am not at all convinced that he can take Edgar down at all – particularly after the first two rounds, when Edgar remains fresh and B.J. has begun to tire. The biggest danger to Frank is, perhaps, the same confidence that may give him a more decisive victory: If he stays in the pocket too long, or over-commits to a combination, Penn’s one-punch power may end things quickly. Still, I expect Edgar to outbox and outwrestle Penn for the duration. Look for him to have more success with takedowns this time out, and rough B.J. up a little on the ground. While Penn is deadly from the top position, he has never impressed in MMA from his back, and Edgar is no dummy on the mat. Frank will frustrate, exhaust, and ultimately defeat B.J. and be confirmed as the UFC champion.

Randy Couture vs James Toney

What can I say? I am looking forward to this fight. Either outcome will fan the flames of debate between boxing and MMA fanboys. A win for Toney would have the added advantage of having a mildly interesting new contender in whichever division he ends up settling on.

There’s not a whole lot to break down here. We all know Randy wants the takedown and nothing but the takedown, and that once on the ground, Toney will likely be pounded out or choked out extremely quickly. We all know that Toney wants to throw his hands and show the MMA world what a high level boxer can do with 4oz gloves.

My pick: Couture. I just don’t have much confidence that Toney is taking his MMA training seriously enough to shore up his non-existent wrestling and grappling games; and even if he is, I don’t think he has had enough time to do so to any significant extent. I am also not one of those convinced that if he so much as manages to touch Couture with his fist, the fight is over, boxing prowess notwithstanding. The most likely outcome is Randy via TKO or submission in the first round.

Demian Maia vs Mario Miranda

On the surface, it might seem as though this matchup was engineered to give Demian Maia an easier fight coming off the heels of his decision loss to Anderson Silva. Mario Miranda is a relatively unknown fighter, with his previous UFC appearances being in the un-aired preliminaries, and his biggest win is over the somewhat inconsistent David Loiseau. There seems little reason to bump him straight from the dark matches into a PPV maincard fight with one of the very best in the division, unless the expectation is that he will make Maia look good.

Still, Miranda should not be overlooked. He is a strong wrestler who appears comfortable standing, and who delivers heavy elbows on the ground. And he is a blackbelt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu himself. He will also have the reach advantage, being a very tall middleweight at 6’4”.

For his part, Demian Maia is, of course, a wizard on the ground. Of all the sport BJJ standouts to transition to MMA, he has perhaps adapted his submission game the most effectively. His wrestling may be under-rated; other than beautifully taking down top-level wrestler Chael Sonnen, Maia also outwrestled – both in terms of takedowns and takedown defense – the strong Dan Miller. His standup is obviously not his strength, but is quite serviceable, getting him the win in the Miller fight and taking him the distance with Silva (who, admittedly, was not exactly going for the kill).

My pick: Maia. It’s hard not to side with Demian in a fight against an opponent whose own strength is the ground. Miranda’s best bet is to use his reach to keep Maia at arm’s length, and his wrestling to keep the fight on the feet if Demian does get inside, and look to outpoint or hurt Maia standing. On the ground, Mario’s own BJJ skills might enable him to survive, and those sharp elbows could see him doing damage to the former title contender. In the end, though, I see Demian showing once again why he is one of the best BJJ practitioners in the sport and winning by submission. He is too tenacious in getting the fight to the ground and too tenacious in working his submissions once there. Look for Miranda to be the fighter picking up his second career loss.

Ken Florian vs Gray Maynard

It’s rather depressingly rare that we see a legitimate “number one contender” match in the UFC – or anywhere – so this fight should hold a lot of appeal for the hardcore fan. Maynard rides into the match as an undefeated, 9-0 fighter who holds a win over the current champion; Florian, who has come up short in two attempts at taking the belt, is nevertheless widely regarded as possibly the best fighter in the division not in tonight’s main event.

Ken is rightly lauded for being one of the most consistently – and visibly – improving fighters in the sport. Each outing shows sharper skills and greater physicality to go along with his always notable ring smarts. With tight striking combinations that mix up punches, kicks, and elbows to excellent effect; a very dangerous submission game that enabled him to choke out blackbelt Joe Stevenson in seconds; ever-improving wrestling that most recently saw him stuffing all of Clay Guida’s takedowns and even slamming the hyperkinetic Guida to the mat himself; and a strong chin, Florian is without a doubt one of the most complete fighters in the sport today.

Gray Maynard, on the other hand, is commonly criticized for being a one-dimensional wrestler – wrongly, in my opinion, since he won his last three fights primarily on the strength of his improved standup. Not bad for someone who is already the best wrestler in the UFC’s lightweight division.

There are two camps when it comes to picking this fight: One sees Florian winning rather easily; the experience gap is too great, and he simply has too many more ways to win the fight. Few think Maynard can hang with Ken on the feet, and if Gray returns to his wrestling roots, he will be vulnerable to Florian’s submissions, sweeps, and even his razor-sharp elbows, effective even from the bottom.

The other camp insists Maynard will use his size and wrestling advantage to “blanket” Florian for the duration, keeping tight enough to prevent Ken from having any room to work a submission or sweep. It should be noted that while Nate Diaz did eventually submit a much less experienced Maynard, it required an almost non-stop barrage of submission attempts (while absorbing a great deal of ground and pound punishment) to finally secure one. Florian’s game isn’t typically as aggressive as Nate’s.

My pick: Florian. Put me in the first camp. Ken’s footwork, his use of the jab to control the range, and his constantly varied assault of punches and kicks are simply too good for Maynard’s very serviceable standup to overcome or even match. Further, I think Maynard will have a great deal of trouble taking Florian down, if he does so at all. Ken rather easily (and surprisingly) outwrestled both Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi; for his part, Maynard had limited success taking down Roger Huerta. Florian’s improvements in this area will frustrate Gray, and if he is taken down, Ken will work for a submission or sweep. I expect Florian to pick Maynard apart standing and finish with a submission when Gray is hurt and/or tired.

Nate Diaz vs Marcus Davis

After a very strong start in the UFC – winning his season of The Ultimate Fighter and his four subsequent fights, including ones with tough veterans Neer and Pellegrino – Diaz has stumbled a bit, dropping three of his remaining four lightweight fights. Feeling the weight cut was a factor, Nate jumped up to the 170lb division, where he demolished Rory Markham in a performance highly reminiscent of his older brother Nick.

Marcus Davis, meanwhile, has been a familiar face at welterweight since his own stint on TUF, with a similar strong start to Diaz’s. Going 6-0 during his initial UFC run, he is 3-3 in the second half of his UFC career, and is still looking for a big win to bump him to the next tier in the contendership ladder.

Both fighters like to strike (Nate’s BJJ credentials notwithstanding). Nate tends to emulate his brother by keeping up a steady barrage of relaxed, less-than-full-power punches that keep his opponents on the defensive and unable to mount their own offense. Davis, originally more of a “slugger” type, has picked up effectively evasive footwork from his time at Sityodtong, and lately is much more choosy about picking his shots.

Interestingly, it is the former boxer Davis who is the stronger wrestler of the two, and he has more than a few submission wins himself. He is also the physically stronger man, most likely by a significant margin.

My pick: Davis. Nate’s welterweight debut against Markham was very promising: He had put on noticeable muscle, and due to that and the easier weight cut, his strikes appeared to be quite a bit heavier than they were at 155. Still, Marcus is a bigger, stronger fighter, with heavier hands; he also likely has the strength and the wrestling to decide where the fight goes. Diaz often appears to have little plan in the cage, and, when the fight has gone against him, has frequently failed to adjust in later rounds. It’s possible he may put on a repeat performance of the Markham fight, in which case I can see him peppering Marcus and getting an eventual cut stoppage, but the more likely result is Marcus Davis winning by decision in a fight that stays mostly on the feet.