Dissection by Dallas: UFC 118 Main Card

With the show kicking off in less than two hours, I'm off to an early start as usual.  Buckle and up and let's get into it.  Click here for previous installments of Maia vs. Miranda and Diaz vs. Davis.

Gray "The Bully" Maynard vs. Kenny "KenFlo" Florian

I'm more ambivalent about this fight than any other on the card.  Just as Kenny may represent the ideal fighter to beat Maynard, "The Bully" may just be a bigger and more skilled version of the technical wrestling bulldogs that account for 3/4 of Florian's losses.  A decision seems likely due to the feisty resilience to being stopped for both; normally Maynard's modus operandi of takedowns and pounding are favored on the score cards, but Kenny has honed his guard game into a high revving and well oiled striking, submission, and position machine.

Neither fighter has true knockout power:  Maynard's basic boxing has become more than sufficient, Florian's Thai is on another level, but he's never been a homerun hitter.  Both have solid chins, so--finding myself unable to avoid the cliche--Florian's elbows could be the difference, especially from his back.  I love the way he's been hurling downward elbows (parallel to the floor) after creating space with his hips and targeting the top of the head, shoulders, and any exposed area of the face.  Kenny's takedown defense looked excellent against B.J. Penn, and if he has a fraction of the same success, he'll be too much for Maynard overall.  My prediction:  Florian by decision

Randy Couture vs. James Toney

I'm tempted to pick Toney only because many consider the outcome predetermined.  "Toney has never faced world class wrestling before!"; just like Randy has never seen the blinding whir nor tasted the walloping sting from a boxer of that level.  "Toney was never a power puncher in his day!"; he's also never connected with a thin layer of leather instead of a king-sized mattress strapped to his fists, and I'm willing to wager his opponents in the ring were much more adept with head movement and evasive defense than Couture will ever be.

This will all come down to how fanatically Toney has concentrated on adjusting his game for MMA.  The athletic shoulder-rolling he's known for can be thrown right out the window, as keeping your legs stationary against Couture equates to taking a seat and eating a truckload of punches and elbows.  The intricacies of grappling make it virtually impossible to learn quickly, so I do believe the fight is over the second Toney goes down.  I see outrageous hammerfists, then a few full-force elbows to open up a side (check?) choke if Toney doesn't flounder completely and give up his back.

Let's not forget that the reason this is such an interesting match-up is that Toney can unfurl a blazing set of three or four punches in the blink of an eye, all of which could take Couture off his feet or out of consciousness.  Randy has some serious holes in his striking game, and if he attempts his usual strategy of launching an ugly but powerful overhand right, then darting in right behind it to pounce in the clinch, Toney will have at least one chance to launch a counter-combo, and more depending on his footwork and mobility.

At the risk of offending all six or seven of my avid fans (including family members), I'm going to give in to this unsettling knot that's been causing my stomach to churn.  It's so obvious that Couture is the favorite on paper, but I'll admit that I sense a shocking upset, even though picking Toney seems like too much of a publicity stunt, and downright blasphemous.  Regardless, since I'm literally making this up as I go along, I'll go with my gut and hang myself out for lightning to strike directly on Couture's chin.  My pick:  Toney by TKO

B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar

I now regret that I already pulled my "I'm most torn on this one" card.  Frankie Edgar has earned a whole new level of my respect, and I doubted him in the first match just like everyone else.  The kicker for the rematch is that I think we'll see entirely different approaches from Penn.  He was almost too methodic last time, robotically stalking Edgar and predictably marching in a straight line to trade punches.  The reason this man became "The Prodigy" was not through patient and technical boxing or a gracefully fluid Jiu Jitsu assault, but for exploding into a raw and primal assailment akin to the most well trained streetfighter in history.

Penn honestly seems like a natural scrapper, who should return to halfway moderated brawling instead of portraying the calm and calculated martial artist.  His roots were clobbering Caol Uno with a one-two and following up with sequential jackhammers that almost put his head through the fence, or igniting a thunderous knee out of nowhere when Din Thomas hung his head too far forward for only an instant.  His polished technique should carry him out of danger should he find himself at a disadvantage from taking risks, especially since Edgar is not a strong finisher by any measure.

Frankie, on the other hand, can only add more horsepower to his proven methods.  I can't see him altering such a successful outlook of remaining elusive and breakdancing across every square foot of the cage while smacking with low kicks and quick, accurate punches.  They say, "You box the brawler, and brawl the boxer", and I believe B.J. will realize that it's a losing battle to play Edgar's game.  Edgar won't submit him, I don't think he can knock him out, and Penn would be wise to throw tricks at him from his guard if Frankie takes him down this time, rather than stand immediately and lose leverage on the score cards.  Edgar can, however, outpoint him on the feet, and outlast him in the long run.  This is Penn's fight if he brings the fire.  My prediction:  Penn by TKO