Dissection by Dallas: UFC 103- Vitor Belfort Vs. Rich Franklin

You may have heard the the question "Which Vitor will show up?" in relation to a Vitor Belfort fight.  I believe that this is a bit of a misnomer created by fans who are disappointed if Vitor doesn't unleash the world-renowned "flurry" within the opening moments of the fight to cripple his opponent to the canvas in story book fashion.  Vitor's losses make sense, and I don't think they can be so easily attributed to Vitor's state of mind, but rather to the overly cliche' phrase "styles make fights".

Fans who have been following the fight game from the beginning have seen the rise and fall of Vitor Belfort, and I think he's been somewhat unfairly labeled a wildly unpredictable fighter.  He was but a vulnerable 20 years old and sitting atop the MMA world after lighting the scene on fire with his unparalleled debut when he faced an unknown Randy Couture, who handed the Brazilian fighter his first devastating loss.  The hype train of the "Phenom" lost serious momentum yet again when Belfort met legend Kazushi Sakuraba in Pride and lost a lackluster decision, breaking his hand early and forced to fight with hesitation for the remainder of the contest back in 1999.  Couture topped him once again in the UFC, followed shortly after by Tito Ortiz in a razor-thin split decision loss where Belfort's striking prowess was indeed on display, but most swept Vitor under the rug after his subsequent losses to Alistair Overeem in Pride and Strikeforce- and being pinned to the canvas by wrestling virtuoso Dan Henderson in Pride didn't renew his reputation.

I see no shame in any of those shortcomings, which amount to an overall 18-8 record against some of the better competition MMA can offer.  Historical notations aside, we arrive at the present, where Vitor will meet 25-4 Rich Franklin in what should prove to be an appetizing exchange of pinpoint striking.  3 of Franklin's 4 losses come by way of Lyoto Machida and Anderson Silva, two men that Vitor has spent significant time training with.  Although Vitor doesn't embody the same style of fighting as either, as no one on earth does, he does share the same proficiency to use clever angles and footwork to attain an advantageous position and stream rockets from his fists into the momentarily vulnerable opponent.  This also requires patience and maturity, both of which I believe Vitor Belfort has made great strides in acquiring.

Rich Franklin has also shown the gritty perseverance and hard-nosed performances that a fighter needs in order to bounce back from heartbreaking losses.  Franklin was soundly dismantled by Anderson Silva twice, and these were the type of one-sided beatings that can change a fighter's career forever- but the unassuming former school teacher hopped back on the horse and proved he is still a formidable opponent for anyone surfing the 185 to 205 lb. waves.  Franklin is easily one of the more poised and intelligent fighters in the business, also touting technical footwork and great hands, but adding a consistent implementation of varied kicks to his polished striking arsenal that have changed the course of fights, and in some cases ended them.  Franklin will also enjoy a slight height and reach advantage that can only assist in transactions on the feet and in the clinch.

Although most are hoping to see fireworks on the feet, the ground game is interesting to analyze.  Although Belfort is a Carlson Gracie blackbelt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, he does not represent much of an offensive submission threat; his only two wins in that fashion came from less than impressive competition, while Franklin has snared a third of his wins by submission.  If Franklin does not fare well on the feet, I don't think a takedown attempt punctuated by top control punishment would be out of the question as a trial tactic.

Vitor's crisp and explosive boxing awards him the solid speed and power advantage, and his chin strength is very underrated as Randy Couture is the only fighter to pin him and pound away for the referee stoppage.  Franklin has shown slight vincibility there, but only to the two best strikers currently competing.  Mentally, Franklin has the edge, and I think his intelligence will also pay dividends by initiating judge-pleasing surges to close rounds on the favorable side of the score cards.

For "The Phenom" to win this fight, he must push the pace and fight aggressively, looking to damage Franklin as opposed to outpointing him.  Rich is a cunning competitor who will remain in the fight until you take him out of it, and that's exactly what Belfort must do to secure the win: position himself to pounce, and then pound away with the intent to finish.  The slightest sign of laid-back behavior from Belfort spells doom for his hopes, as Franklin will stay busy enough to steal the decision.  My choices are Franklin by decision, or to go with what I would prefer to see unfold:  My guess:  Belfort by TKO.