The crystal ball is working overtime on this one:  attempting to foresee and weigh the impact of Tito Ortiz' back surgery, the legitimacy of Tito's claims that he's finally 100% after years of competing injured, how much ring-rust might be permeating the trusty ol' ground and pound machine after such a long layoff, how much Forrest has learned since their first encounter, and who will most benefit from the nearly palpable sense of deep desire and emotional motivation each fighter is feeling to make this fight a statement that they are still elite caliber light-heavyweights. As if the grocery list above isn't reason enough to just shrug and flip a coin, the first fight between the two resulted in what I gauged (as a fan of Tito) to be a draw for the near stalemate in offense of the final round. Despite the unanswered questions, it's safe to assume that Forrest Griffin definitely has not gotten any worse since stepping up to the biggest test of his career against Ortiz at UFC 59.  In fact, he went on to defeat the #1 light-heavyweight in the world in Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, and then also toppled the fighter who assumed Rua's vacated spot as the world's best 205'er in Quinton "Rampage" Jackson to become the UFC light-heavyweight champion. Griffin's rise perfectly contrasted Tito's slow but steady wane.  After enjoying the title of the longest reigning 205 pound champion in UFC history, Ortiz caught flak for holding steadfast in contract demands and allegedly avoiding a confrontation with former friend and training partner Chuck Liddell.  Ortiz re-emerged to the tune of two back-to-back losses from Randy Couture (2003) and Liddell (2004), which was the first time he had tasted defeat since 1999 against Frank Shamrock.  Tito got back on track with thins wins over Patrick Cote and Vitor Belfort before meeting up with Griffin, and "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" eventually was blacklisted by Dana White after losing to Liddell a second time along with falling short versus current champion Lyoto Machida. Of course, Forrest's championship run represents the apex of his career, as the victor of the precedential debut of "The Ultimate Fighter" show was viciously unseated from the throne via top-position jackhammers from the pouncing Rashad Evans, and (let's be honest) thoroughly embarrassed and toyed with by Anderson Silva in the dominant middleweight champion's second stint at light-heavy. Using their first engagement as a barometer, Forrest fell prey to the takedown early and was forced to chew on elbows for most of the first, but then Tito downshifted sluggishly and began telegraphing his shots from miles outside, allowing Forrest to sprawl and brawl with a pestering succession of lefts, rights, and low kicks.  Forrest's striking game has become much more versatile, and he's grown confident and comfortable with it.  There's no shame in being outstruck by MMA's greatest pure striker, and let's not forget how Forrest crippled Rampage with leg kicks and landed at will, also holding his own against the Muay Thai storm of Shogun Rua. Forrest will make much better use of his significant height and reach advantage, making his strikes more cumbersome for Tito to deal with and forcing Tito to put in serious time and effort for the takedown.  The fight is far from a slam dunk for Tito if he puts Griffin on his back, but Forrest has shown a repetitive weakness underneath strong grapplers with heavy strikes.  Conversely, Ortiz has struggled with rangy, technical strikers, especially when he doesn't set-up his outside shots or succeed in clinching and getting underhooks. This thought-provoking analysis has inarguably rendered one piece of inarguable truth:  I should've flipped a coin.  I'm an old Tito fan, and although I fear his output may rapidly decline after the first round, and he has fewer avenues towards victory, I think he needs the win more than Forrest does.  My guess:  Ortiz by decision

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