Dissection by Dallas: The UFC 109 Leftovers

To provide a quick overview of the remaining bouts on tonight's card and machine-gun through a few evaluations:

Mike Swick x Paulo Thiago--although both fighters are beyond elementary in all aspects, the mechanics of this fight will unfold under the "striker vs. grappler" guidelines.  Swick's hands are truly lightning-fast, and he might be one of the most violent strikers at 170 when he's not hesitant and pulls the trigger freely and with confidence.  Thiago presents the perfect reason why Swick is not always relaxed and winging bombs recklessly, because Paulo is a machine on the ground.

Although not bearing an overabundance of big names, his resume is stocked with submission wins and only one flaw at the hands of Jon Fitch; although one could argue that the only relevant success of Thiago's was the stunning wallop that floored Josh Koscheck.  Just as Thiago will be slightly overmatched should Swick succeed in keeping the fight standing, the same situation applies in reverse if Thiago can ground Swick.

Based mostly on the favoritism shown by judges towards the striker and the inconsistency (or inadequacy) of properly scoring submission attempts, it's understandable that Swick is favored.  My guess:  Swick by decision

Demian Maia x Dan Miller--the outlook is bleak for talented middleweight Dan Miller, with his most appealing strategy possibly lying with a sprawl and brawl strategy to steer clear from the magnetic tangles of Maia's smooth and highly complex submission set-ups.  I've been critical of Maia, but in this case, the fight will hit the ground and the reason he's acclaimed as one of MMA's top grapplers will be on full display.  My guess:  Maia by submission

Ronys Torres x Melvin Guillard--the highly anticipated debut of Nova Uniao's secret weapon pits him against a fighter who is submission-prone, but athletically gifted enough to end the fight with one monstrous blow.  Still, Torres is a massive fighter who cuts an excess of 30 pounds to hit the lightweight mark, and gets a passing grade in striking with topflight honors in wrestling and submissions.  Look for Torres to ground Guillard eventually and start working his magic by softening him up with power shots from the top before angling for his signature kimura.  My guess:  Torres by submission

Matt Serra x Frank Trigg--our New Jersey based readers should direct all threats of violence to Kevin Garvey for his head writer picking against the hometown boys.  I'm a big fan of Matt Serra, as a person and a fighter, but Trigg is a veteran who has excelled against top competition at both 170 and 185 pounds.  The stigma that he'll walk into a rear-naked choke is simply not true just because two of the best welterweights of all time were able to finish him that way.  Trigg will be bigger, stronger, more technical standing, a better wrestler (heavily due to the size factor), and well aware of Serra's ten-ton right hand and fluent guard.  My guess: Trigg by decision

Phillipe Nover x Rob Emerson--enter the rare breed of animal called "a Rob Emerson fan"; a creature not even recognized enough to be placed on the endangered species list, and mostly relegated to hokey religious cults and Dungeons and Dragons lore.  Check out Emerson's first few fights as a professional, and then see Nover's less than impressive performances post-TUF.  My guess:  Emerson by TKO