Dissection by Dallas: Nate Diaz x Marcus Davis

It's Chapter Two at 170 pounds for polarizing beanpole Nate Diaz at UFC 118 when he takes on divisional stalwart Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis.

After clenching the vaunted title of "The Ultimate Fighter", Diaz's post-show stint started strong (4-0 over Assuncao, Robinson, Pellegrino, and Neer) but skated into rough waters at the tail end (1-3 with decision losses to Guida, Stevenson, and Maynard).  This prompted a stint in the welterweight class, where the Stockton native trounced Rory Markham with a barrage of strikes that quickly quelled the notion that he had no power in his punches.

Following a similar trajectory, Davis, another TUF product, rose above with six consecutive victories in the UFC, finishing all but the venerable Shonie Carter.  Posting a 17-2-1 clip in the boxing ring before climbing into the cage, Davis showed promise by demonstrating submission knowledge in addition to his crisp stand-up, and flaunts more wins via catch versus strikes on his 17-6 MMA record.

I have a rare and annoying talent to make a viable case for the underdog in most match-ups, but this equation calculates poorly for Marcus Davis.  I'll give him the edge in strength, wrestling, and punching power; but Diaz rarely overpowers anyone, his guard game is silky smooth and probably where he's deadliest, and the kid has a bank vault for a chin.  Marcus will also be struggling with a serious height and reach challenge, and the only halfway likely scenario for him to pull this off is to contain Diaz with takedowns and evade a sea of rubbery submission attempts for three rounds.

Considering the density of Diaz's beard and the depth of his Cesar Gracie grappling game, his chances of a finish are slim indeed.  Diaz, however, has a multitude of options to exercise.  His unorthodox boxing will swarm with abstract angles and frenetic output, leaving a hefty straight left down the center of the pipeline as his best choice to capitalize on Diaz's sketchy head movement.  Clinching with Nate is a nightmare, as the talented youngster has an entire arsenal of Judo throws, Thai-toys such as knees and elbows from all angles, and fervently clever pursuit of creative attempts at positions and sub set-ups.  He has even more weapons on the mat should Davis succeed in taking him down.

Even if Marcus can achieve the top position on the mat, Nate's sweeps and reversals are top-notch.  He's one of the most enjoyable ground-fighters to behold, as his pace is nonstop and he truly embodies being "like water" by playing off his opponent's movements to present multiple problems for each step they take in the right direction.

I can definitely envision Davis imprinting his glove on Diaz's face and planting him on his ass, even more than once, but I don't think his overall skill-set can overpower one of the most dynamic and creative martial artists in the game today.  My prediction:  Diaz by submission