Dissection by Dallas: Manhoef x Lawler

Within the MMA sewing circle, Melvin Manhoef has often been cited as the middleweight with the best chance of dethroning Anderson Silva.  Regardless of whether or not this is a stretch of the imagination, it somewhat authenticates how formidable and devastating Manhoef's stand-up game is.

Manhoef holds an amazing 96% winning percentage by KO or TKO, which equates to 23 of his 24 victims crumbling under the weight of his unmanageable striking, and he bears the honor of being the first and only fighter to send iron-headed heavyweight kickboxer Mark Hunt into a peaceful slumberwith a jackhammer right hand.  Yes, the same Mark Hunt that casually shook off a Mirko CroCop high-kick that landed square, which is the same blow that sent many heavyweight's heads plummeting out into deep space.

The Dutch-Surinamese Muay Thai specialist stalks forward ominously in a crouched stance like a coiled spring, waiting for the right time to discharge a fierce torrent of ten-ton punches, all of which are fully intended to end the fight on contact.  He implements a style and strategy not unlike the infamous Chute Boxe assailment that fans fell in love with for its pure aggression and fearless brutality; except Manhoef doesn't utilize the wide, outstretched meathooks that offer opportunities for counterpunches to be drilled into, and he's got an impenetrable chin and pretty good head movement.

He's the unique type of fighter whose kickboxing skills are so damn deadly that he can get away with being one-dimensional, even at the highest level of MMA.  Manhoef is a naturally gifted athlete, and he's strong, quick, and agile. 

The fine print on Manhoef reveals a supreme hypersensitivity to anything grappling or submission related, harkening back to the early days of NHB when the striker would trounce the grappler on the feet until he found himself flopping around on his back like a fish out of water, as evidenced in Manhoef's encounters with Yoshihiro Akiyama, Dong Sik Yoon, and Paulo Filho. 

His opponent, 16-5 "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler, is also a stand-up oriented fighter, but much more well-rounded.  He's also snared an overwhelming number of his victories through the use of his effective stand-up, winning 13 of 16 by KO/TKO.  All but one of Lawler's losses have come by way of submission, which is not an angle that Manhoef is capable of threatening with.  His remaining loss was the rather shocking collapse after Nick Diaz snuck in a short hook at UFC 47, which has proven to be a rare occurrence.

Being one of the prime and premiere members of the Militech camp, Lawler is an adept wrestler with decent submission skills, and there's no question that a takedown would provide the most optimal scenario for Lawler.  However, Manhoef has fast reactions and a good sprawl, and Lawler has stated that his plan is to stand and trade.  As a fan, I applaud his bravado; as an analyst, I think he might be drunk.

Lawler has not faced many top-shelf, technically adept strikers--and when he has, he's fallen.  Pete Spratt applied the brakes to the Lawler hype-train by handing him his first loss back at UFC 42 with a cascade of crushing leg kicks that forced Lawler to verbally submit and limp from the cage.  Lawler does hold victories over crafty veteran strikers like Aaron Riley, Steve Berger, Chris Lytle, Scott Smith, and "Ninja" Rua, but none from that list offer the unbridled barbarity in a technically-sound package like Manhoef does.

I was a bit surprised to see Lawler as the underdog on the betting lines, but considering the stylistic adversity he faces and with Manhoef coming off the biggest win of his career after KO'ing Kazuo Misaki overseas, the slant is understandable.

Getting down to brass tacks, the question is:  can Lawler succeed in grounding Manhoef, and if so, can he submit him, TKO him, or otherwise have his way with him?  Absolutely.  Lawler's ground skills may not be his strength, but he's been in the game quite a while, he's a complete fighter, and it doesn't take a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu phenom to control Manhoef on the mat and neutralize his strength.

To be blinded with pride by attempting to beat Manhoef at his own game is like Captain Kirk flying a transport shuttle to a nearby planet when he can just beam down.  It just wouldn't make sense.  Although I have all the respect in the world for Manhoef, and I'm thrilled that he's made his way to the states and will be competing against such a worthy opponent, I have to go against the grain and hope that Lawler will exemplify the common denominator of MMA and use his well-rounded combat arsenal to exploit his opponent's weakness.  If he stands, he sleeps--but Lawler will be fueled by his embarrassing loss to Jake Shields and is too smart to risk dropping off the 185 pound radar screen just to put on a show.  My guess:  Lawler by submission