I'm somewhat surprised that the oddsmakers and some popular media sources aren't giving Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante much of a chance against Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal in tonight's "Strikeforce: Houston" light-heavyweight championship. 


I'm the type of stubborn fan that holds "consistent performances" in higher regard than a select few showings, and I see far too much emphasis and too many conclusions being drawn from King Mo's impressive stifling of Gegard Mousasi.  Actually, that fight might elicit some specific areas where Feijao could prove to be a handful.  I do find solace in the fact that King Mo apparently agrees with me.


It was obvious from his MMA debut that King Mo was more than just a wrestler.  After shellacking veteran Travis Wiuff with a fearsome string of punches and establishing his unquestionable power, Lawal proceeded to display seamless transitions and smooth set-ups for his engulfing takedowns in subsequent outings.  Not unlike Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, who will compete in the lead-in bout to the Lawal vs. Cavalcante main event, King Mo has offered explosive athleticism, natural strength and agility, an almost freakish ability to box, and the confidence and "fight IQ" that's almost unheard of for a wrestling-based newcomer.  Throw in some sound submission defense, and his lofty status is definitely understandable.


He's yet to tackle a foe with exemplary takedown defense, comparable strength and quickness, or a technical clinch game--all of which Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante brings to the table.  Mousasi, who is not a large or powerful 205'er, and accrued his reputation against middleweights in the overseas arena, accounts for the first and only opponent on King Mo's resumé with a dual-pronged striking and submission threat.  Feijao will be the second.


The Brazilian from the vaunted Black House academy hasn't necessarily slaughtered an elite list of killers either; so I realize the same argument can be made in reverse.  My point is:  Lawal's win over Mousasi and Feijao's surprising loss to Mike Kyle might be overly influencing some, and the fact of the matter is that neither fighter has faced this type of dynamic adversary, and this collision should be much more competitive than the betting lines indicate.


Feijao exhibited adroit footwork combined with phenomenal use of underhooks and a nonstop barrage of knees to easily overcome strong wrestlers in Devin and Wayne Cole (unrelated), and is bulletproof in many of the "little things" (like staying off the fence with textbook circling, knowing when to use the Thai plum or release it to defend, mixing different kicks in with his repertoire of punches, and upholding tight footwork in a controlled stance) that can often make a big difference.  He tends to hang his chin out a tad too far and drop his hands when committing to strikes, but he maintains good balance when unfurling combinations, and has cat-like reflexes that may cause some serious issues for Lawal's takedowns.  Mike Whitehead enjoyed the most success in defending King Mo's lightning fast shots, but doesn't have the skill set to hang with the champ on the feet. 


Cardio goes to the King, but finishing ability goes to Cavalcante.  Chael Sonnen proved that owning a black belt in BJJ under the Nogueira brothers isn't instant authenticity as a submission whiz, but Feijao could produce an arsenal of weapons with sweeps, strikes, reversals, and sub attempts if he can keep his hips free and busy as hell.  I'd give Mo the edge on the feet with straight punching and technical boxing, and maybe beard strength as well, but Feijao gets the nod for clinch skill.


The fight is close to a toss-up for me, so I'm sticking with my instincts and picking the fighter that has more tools in more areas.  When the pressure was on, King Mo reverted to the safety of his wrestling roots, and the best defense for smothering top control is proficiency on the feet, good takedown defense, offensive and defensive skills in the clinch, and a busy submission game on the floor.  Feijao has the potential to fit that bill, and I think he's being drastically overlooked here. 

My prediction:  Feijao by submission

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