Dissection by Dallas: Jon Jones x Vladimir Matyushenko

The roaring Jon Jones hype-train makes its next stop tonight in the headliner of "UFC on Versus 2" against old schooler Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko, where the seemingly unstoppable youngster emerges as the monumental favorite on the betting circuit.

Vladdy is a former heavyweight thirteen years deep in the game, known for his bear-like strength and solid wrestling acumen.  He boasts a 24-4 clip, with three of those losses coming at the hands of premiere juggernauts in Tito Ortiz, Andrei Arlovski, and Little Nog.  Unfortunately, loads of experience nowadays can often prove to be just as detrimental as beneficial, especially when opposed by the fiery exuberance of youthful talent and athleticism.

Though Vladdy's fight IQ and composure serve him well to maximize the breadth of his fairly one-sided skill set, contrasting him with Jones simply offers minuscule opportunities toward victory.  His best asset is his takedowns and top game, and the manner in which Jones tossed Matt Hamill around the Octagon proved that "Bones" is truly a phenomenally gifted anomaly.  It never bodes well when a fighter's best (and arguably only) weapon barely stacks up to an adversary with more guns in the cabinet than Smith & Wesson.

Seasoned vet Matyushenko squares off with one of the most diverse and dynamic martial artists in the business who may also be the most exciting prospect on the market.  Jones will be favored by a few inches in height and many in reach, as the man's ridiculously extensive wingspan nearly defies anatomy.  This in addition to Jones' electrically creative stand-up style lends little chance for Matyushenko to penetrate the perimeter of stiff punches and thorny elbows surrounding Jones, and his feathery and precise footwork will make him a challenge to get ahold of.

Even if "The Janitor" can traverse striking range and enter the unfriendly clinch territory, the endless reels on the UFC cut-room floor capturing Jones' stellar proficiency with throws and trips  from the body lock position render Matyushenko's odds of gaining control somewhere between faint and futile.  Matyushenko has evolved his boxing in adequate increments over the years, but this stage of combat tends to be a mere disguise to camouflage his intention to shoot and a partially polished tool to help him survive when he's not on top clobbering people.

More often than not, some sane and coherent case can be made for the underdog.  Every A-list opponent Matyushenko has faced either beat him or dropped the bout on the score cards, and dodging Jones' multifaceted whirlwing of offense while maintaining a semblance of authority for two of three rounds is a tall order.  Vladdy does a decent job of mixing up his strikes despite capping his output to only one- and two-punch combinations; banging a hard jab to the body, winging a decent left hook, and mixing in an ugly but powerful overhand right.  A concern against the cerebral Jones is the predictable rhythm of Vladdy's punches, as he tends to telegraph a bit and leap forward with each strike while firmly planting his feet.  This indeed generates more torque, but also allows for a clever tactician like Jones to measure his cadence and wreak havoc on a stationary fighter momentarily exposed at the end of his thrusts.

I suppose one could argue that Jones' chin hasn't been thoroughly checked, though more than one flush blow has deflected off his jaw thus far.  Actually, winding up a war-hammer and timing it perfectly may prove his most feasible option.  Tutored by the scientists of strategy at Greg Jackson's camp, making the assumption that Jones will be well aware and fully prepared for a hail mary right hand or any takedown attempts set up through distractive striking is a sound theory.  The crystal ball shows a lucky haymaker from Matyushenko or a blatant mistake by Jones (as concluded the Hamill fight) to be the best estimates for Vladdy seeing any glory.  On the flip side, look for Jones to adopt the same strategy and pressure Matyushenko on the feet early just enough to absorb all of his attention before making a bold statement by taking the weathered wrestler down and putting his apocalyptic elbows to use.

My prediction:  Jones by TKO