Baran's Breakdown: UFC 118 - Preview

Friday, 27 August 2010 08:30

by Shawn Baran

Barans_Breakdown

Summer may be winding down, but the non-stop action of MMA is just heating up. UFC 118 comes to us live on Saturday night, August 28^th from the TD Garden Arena in Boston. This will be the UFC’s very first trip to Massachusetts. Here, we will finally see the highly anticipated rematch for the Lightweight Championship of the world. Champion, Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (12-1) will attempt to make lightning strike twice by pulling out another victory against the seemingly unbeatable “Prodigy” BJ Penn (15-6-1).

The last time around, Edgar used precision boxing and fluid movement to keep Penn at bay. Penn could not get Edgar’s timing down, but insisted on standing and striking with Frankie. Penn appeared to be out of character by not attempting to get the fight to the ground at all. The end result was Edgar pulling off arguably the upset of the year. This time around, expect Edgar to do much of the same--force Penn to counter-punch while keeping the fight standing as long as possible. Frankie seemed to frustrate Penn in their first fight by mixing up his striking and footwork. No doubt, Edgar will keep that same game plan Saturday night.

Despite Edgar’s tremendous wrestling ability, Penn has the size and power advantage and should utilize his outstanding grappling as often as he can. This will neutralize Edgar’s boxing and move the fight in Penn’s favor. Penn should also use the clinch to his advantage and try to hurt Edgar with some good, old-fashioned dirty boxing. If Penn decides to counter punch with Edgar, it may be another long night for “The Prodigy”. Penn will end up frustrated, tired, and without the lightweight title.

The burning question last time was who would be able to defeat BJ Penn at 155 lbs? Frankie had the answer that night. This time, Penn may have changed the question. If Penn can get Edgar on the mat and keep him there, the fight is his for the taking. However, that is no easy task given Frankie’s skills on the ground. I believe the real BJ Penn will show up Saturday night and that spells trouble for Frankie Edgar. As a NJ native, I will be rooting for Edgar. On the other hand, I do not think we are going to see the same fight again. I’ll go with Penn by decision.

The “war of words” in the next fight has been a very one sided affair up to this point. James “Lights Out” Toney (0-0), a highly regarded world champion professional boxer, will step into the Octagon to make his MMA debut. Toney had badgered Dana White for quite some time and White finally gave in and signed Toney. White may have also thrown Toney to the wolves as his debut fight will be against the legendary MMA icon Randy “The Natural” Couture (18-10).

The “boxing versus MMA” topic has been debated time and time again with no definitive answer being found. Saturday night, the time for talking is over. Can Couture avoid the damaging hands of Toney and take him down to the mat where Toney will be like a fish out of water? Or will “Lights Out” have a few tricks up his sleeve for “The Natural”? The fact of the matter is Couture is still a world class athlete. James Toney is an athlete way past his prime. That spells trouble for the former boxing champ.

The only hope I see for Toney winning this fight would be to catch Randy very early in the fight with a big punch with hopes of knocking Couture out with a flurry of punches. I just do not see that happening. What I see happening is Couture closing the distance, getting the takedown, and taking Toney out of his element. We may even see Couture throw some vicious leg kicks too. From there, Randy should easily have his way with Toney and secure a submission for a fairly easy tap out. I shall pick Randy Couture by any way he sees fit.

Also on the card is a middleweight contest that features a severe contrast of styles. Jiu-Jitsu sensation and top contender, Demian Maia (12-2) looks to reclaim his seat at the top of the middleweight contender list. Standing in his way is established striker and wrestler, Mario Miranda (12-1). There were a bizarre string of injuries that led to this match-up being added to the card, but it is a welcome addition to a fantastic line-up.

For Maia, the solution to this style clash is simple. Avoid the striking and the fight is yours. Miranda is a great wrestler and also a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but doesn’t seem to have much success after the takedown. Maia’s Jiu-Jitsu should be superior and neutralize Miranda’s wrestling. The problem here is that if these two find themselves inside the clinch, it could spell danger for Maia. A lot of Maia’s takedowns come from the clinch and Miranda is quite the effective striker from this position.

Maia’s gameplan will be simple. Achieve the takedown, establish position, and secure the submission. Miranda will not be a walk in the park by any means, but Maia’s skill on the ground should be the deciding factor. I’ll go with Maia by submission.

Next up is an intriguing match-up featuring the lightweights. Former top contender, Kenny Florian (15-4) will attempt to exploit some holes in Gray Maynard’s (10-0) game. “The Bully” is undefeated thus far in his MMA career, but he has never faced an opponent as well rounded and intelligent as Florian. Both these pugilists are exceptional athletes, but Florian’s intelligence and superior technique should be the key to success for him in this contest. Maynard’s fights are rarely exciting, but this one may prove different.

Maynard is definitely the stronger of the two and should not have much of a problem getting the fight to the ground. If “The Bully” can hold Florian at bay with some old fashioned ground and pound, it could prove disastrous for Florian. “Kenflo” has shown some weakness in generating offense from the guard so he needs to avoid being on his back at all costs. Although, training with GSP for this fight will not hurt Florian’s wrestling game by any means.

Despite Maynard’s heavy hands, the longer the fight stays standing, the more it will favor Florian. If “Kenflo” fights smart and patiently, he will find an opening in Maynard’s game and go home victorious. As added incentive, it seems the winner will get a shot at the title. I will pick Florian by TKO.

Kicking off the pay per view broadcast will be an explosive welterweight match-up between Nate Diaz (12-5) and Marcus “The Irish Hand Grenade” Davis (22-7). This fight is a must win for Davis if he wants to prove he has any relevancy left in the 170 lbs division. Nate Diaz failed at 155 and has now moved back up to 170 to try to make a title run there.

Aside from their records, these two are fairly even on paper. Striking is their strength, but they can hold their own on the ground as well. However, on the ground the fight will heavily favor Diaz. Davis relies mostly on his boxing and Diaz loves to stand and “bang”. With that, I expect this fight to spend most of its time standing. Unfortunately for Davis, Diaz gets the edge here too.

Davis will most certainly make it a good and entertaining fight, but it won’t be enough to overcome Diaz’ skill set. This should definitely be an exciting and bloody brawl. In the end, though, I see Diaz coming away with a TKO victory.

UFC-118

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Comments

#1 Guest 2010-08-27 09:55

Nice read, I agree with everything you said. I think bj will land some good shots and the outcome will look a lot like the Sherk fight. I see BJ getting the third round Tko...

James Toney has a chance to finish it in the first 30 seconds but that will be it. Couture will take him down and either tap him or make the ref pull him off... Or he might not like getting hit with those smaller gloves and tap from strikes or submission. Couture via submission first round.

Agree 100% with your gray/Kenny breakdown I just see gray squeezing out the decision.

I did a one dollar parlay on Frankie, Gray, and Toney that will bring me a nice 100 bucks. Haha ;-)