Andrei Arlovski vs. Antonio Silva: the History, Significance, and Analysis

The rejuvenation of reputation and heavyweight relevancy hangs in the balance for the formerly dominant UFC champion Andrei "The Pitbull" Arlovski tonight when he returns to action against Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva at Strikeforce: "Heavy Artillery".

The Belarus-born Arlovski has been a victim of the painful and distorted trend that a fighter "is only as good as his last fight"; or in Arlovski's case, his last two.  Beginning at the point where the deft boxer was considered untouchable during his reign as UFC heavyweight overlord:  he engaged in a rematch with Tim Sylvia, and looked to be on track to duplicate the result of their first encounter when he crumbled Sylvia with the same one-two punch sequence--but in a dramatic turn of events, Sylvia simply stood up and fed the pouncing Arlovski a short right hand to the chin that stopped him dead in his tracks and relieved him of his championship accolades.

The rubber match was flat and uninspiring, and saw Sylvia clenching a unanimous decision that booted Arlovski out of immediate title contention and beyond fan-favor for the time being.  Although Arlovski notched three consecutive wins in the promotion over game competition in Marcio "Pe De Pano" Cruz, Pride newcomer Fabricio Werdum, and then-flawless wrestler Jake O'Brien, he could not come to terms when renewing his contract, and opted to try his hand in the ephemeral Affliction organization.  He amplified his renewing momentum by crushing Miletich heavyweight Ben Rothwell with strikes, and with a little help from a questionable stand-up from the referee when pinned in side control, Arlovski was eventually able to persevere through the clever position-work of Roy "Big Country" Nelson to administer fight-ending blows in the second round.

Then, Armageddon ensued.  The magnetic alignment of Arlovski vs. Fedor Emelianenko was formed, and Arlovski was the first fighter to thoroughly have his way on the feet with the mythical Russian juggernaut before overzealously taking flight with a flying knee attempt--which was answered with an absolutely elephantine right straight from "The Last Emperor" that brought Arlovski out of orbit and left him unconscious on the canvas.  In his next and last outing, he would serve as the unfortunate stepping stone for Brett Rogers' leap into the ranks of esteemed heavyweights by eating a thunderous volley of punches for a devastating and career-screeching TKO loss.

The disappointment and depression spawned almost a year of absence and an admitted dabbling in Russian roulette, but Andrei Arlovski is back in the saddle and will re-emerge against a fearsome and hulking leviathan with the hopes of climbing back into the spotlight of the heavyweight landscape.

ATT standout Antonio Silva was long being touted as the next big man to watch out for on account of his massive size and adroit ground skills before finding himself on the wrong end of "Big" Eric Pele's searing cycle of punches in Bodogfight, rendering Silva's first career loss in his eighth professional fight.  Undaunted, the talented athlete joined forces with EliteXC and buried three-straight opponents (Correira, Wiezorek, Rodriguez) en route to a shot at the young promotion's heavyweight title, where he clobbered the late Justin Eilers (R.I.P.) with a violent conglomeration of knees and punches.

The sugar of sweet victory was short-lived, however, as the post-fight drug test lit up for the presence of anabolic steroids; and while the governing athletic commission was adjudicating the case, Silva defied their authority by bolting to Japan in order to compete beyond the jurisdiction of their punishment.  In the midst of a fall from grace not unlike Arlovski's, Silva began repairing his image and status with two first-round finishes of Yoshiro "Kiss" Nakao and Jim York in Sengoku before stepping back onto the American stage, his suspension from the steroid incident now expired.

Bigfoot faced Fabricio Werdum in his first Strikeforce fight, and exhibited a firm resolve and improved striking despite suffering defeat via the judges' score cards.  With the long awaited return of Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem being met with Brett Rogers, and Werdum set to face Fedor in June, the Silva vs. Arlovski match will extract the clear number two contender behind the winner of Fedor/Werdum.

The seemingly unnecessary depth of this article is directly attributed to the sheer magnitude surrounding this fight for Andrei Arlovski.  Yes... in the world of MMA, if you've annihilated eleven of your last fifteen opponents, but lost four, three by knockout, against top-ten and undoubtedly elite competition--you are effectively "washed up with a glass chin".  Perception, no matter how skewed, is reality.  Despite the acrimonious cynicism, this remains the vox populi on Arlovski.

Antonio Silva's enormous bulk, his nearly unparalleled ground wizardry for a man of his size, and the heft of his stout punches qualify this as nothing short of a risk of supreme danger for Arlovski.  Another defeat may present irreparable damage to becoming relevant once again; a loss by knockout seals his doom.

Immeasurable pressure is surely weighing heavily on "The Pitbull" in this pivotal comeback fight.  Silva has big, burly punches, but his striking game has merely become an improved complement to his core competency of technical Jiu Jitsu mixed with malicious ground-n-pound.  Silva's footwork is decent for his size, but nothing short of plodding and clumsy in contrast to nimble heavyweight strikers like Arlovski, Overeem, and Emelianenko.

Thus, agile movement and mature cage-generalship, adherence to an intelligent strategy, a dedication to fervent head movement, and the calculated execution of agile boxing will be the absolute keys to victory for Arlovski.  His Sambo background makes him no slouch on the ground, but his smaller stature does him no favors if Silva can tie him up, subdue him with strength, and start working his submission technique.  Any point in time or position in the fight where Silva can get his hands on Arlovski is a major concern for trouble to develop.

Silva's advantage of being such a cyclopean heavyweight with high-level BJJ will serve him well everywhere but open-spaced, free-phase striking--so Arlovski would be well advised to keep the action on the feet while remaining a moving target, and find the rhythm of his fluent and ferocious kickboxing arsenal to pinpoint holes in Silva's porous and lumbering defense.  The clinch and ground aspects are bright red, blaring alarms for Arlovski:  "Bigfoot" will gladly impart his mass upon the smaller man if he can corner him and clinch, and the last place Arlovski wants to be is on his back beneath a hail of Frankenstein-sized fists.

Conditioning may also creep into the picture, as out of fifteen total fights for Antonio Silva, only three have surpassed the initial frame, and his speedometer steadily winds down towards the waning rounds.  More importantly, Arlovski's mental force-field will dictate his success, both coming into the fight and after he tastes the colossal impact Silva puts on the end of even the shortest of his punches.

For any uninformed bettors precariously placing worth on this analysis, be aware that, as usual, my roots as a hardcore fan often cloud the tact of unadulterated objectivity--but my heart and prediction lie with Andrei Arlovski enthusiastically demonstrating the same dexterous boxing abilities that shot him to heavyweight stardom.  Silva has been finished by a lesser striker in Pele, and I'm assuming Arlovski's adherence to safety will unfold in a hesitant, if not almost timid approach, making the chances of a decision more likely than a convincing stoppage.  Watch out for Arlovski's crisp uppercut to quickly turn the tides should he land it when Silva ducks his head while advancing.

My prediction:  Arlovski by decision